2015 NBA Finals Preview
The 2015 NBA Finals will finally get underway on Thursday night, eight days after the conference finals came to an end. Many NBA fans have been upset with the long layoff in between games, but the league had to plan as if both conference finals were going the distance, and neither came close to doing that (the Cavaliers swept the Hawks, and the Warriors dispatched the Rockets in five games). While the league did discuss the idea of moving the start of the Finals up two days, the fact of the matter is, tickets were booked and reservations were made weeks in advance, so changing the starting date would have been a logistical nightmare for all parties involved.
On paper, this matchup looks well worth the wait. The Warriors have been the best team in the NBA throughout the season, going 67-15 to secure home court advantage throughout the playoffs. Meanwhile, after putting a lot of their roster together during the offseason, and acquiring J.R. Smith and Iman Shumpert during the season, the Cavaliers took some time to jell, but they have been on a roll of late. They were the East’s #2 seed and easily took care of the top-seeded Hawks. It will be a battle of giants for the NBA’s most coveted prize. The league’s most valuable player, Stephen Curry and his Warriors taking on the best player in the world, LeBron James and his Cavaliers. Both teams are led by rookie coaches: Steve Kerr for the Warriors and David Blatt for the Cavaliers. Both franchises are starving for that Larry O’Brien trophy: the Warriors have not won the title since 1975, while the Cavaliers have never won a league championship.
Finals Schedule:
Game 1: at Golden State – Thursday, June 4 at 9:00 pm ET on ABC
Game 2: at Golden State – Sunday, June 7 at 8:00 pm ET on ABC
Game 3: at Cleveland – Tuesday, June 9 at 9:00 pm ET on ABC
Game 4: at Cleveland – Thursday, June 11 at 9:00 pm ET on ABC
Game 5 (if necessary): at Golden State – Sunday, June 14 at 8:00 pm ET on ABC
Game 6 (if necessary): at Cleveland – Tuesday, June 16 at 9:00 pm ET on ABC
Game 7 (if necessary): at Golden State – Friday, June 19 at 9:00 pm ET on ABC
How the Warriors win:
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For the Warriors to be competitive in this series, they need Klay Thompson to be healthy. Thompson took a knee to the head in game 5 against the Rockets. He briefly left with a laceration to his ear, but returned later in the game. Further tests after the game revealed that he suffered a concussion. With the long layoff prior to game 1 of the Finals, Kerr expects Thompson to be ready. When healthy, the Warriors have as much depth as any team in the league, so much depth that former all-star and Olympic gold medalist Andre Iguodala is now coming off the bench, and another all-star, David Lee, isn’t even part of the rotation. The Splash Brothers, Curry and Thompson, are capable of shooting the lights out in any given game, but this team gets plenty of contributions elsewhere. Harrison Barnes has really emerged since becoming a starter this season. Draymond Green is doing a little bit of everything. Andrew Bogut is one of the top defensive centers in the league. Even Festus Ezeli gave the Warriors 12 points and 9 rebounds in the game 5 win over the Rockets.
Speaking of defense, it is here that the Warriors can separate themselves. Both teams can put a lot of offensive firepower on the court at any given time. Despite the offensive success that Golden State enjoyed throughout the season, they were arguably even better on the defensive end. They led the NBA with a 98.2 defensive rating, thanks largely in part to a frontline that rarely gave up easy looks close to the basket. Against the Rockets, the Warriors tried to chase the perimeter players off of the three-point line and into the paint toward the shot blockers. That strategy worked really well. The Cavaliers attempted the second-most three pointers in the league (29.1 per game) so expect Golden State to use a similar strategy in this matchup.
Finally, the Warriors have Stephen Curry, the league MVP. Curry is the greatest shooter in our generation, and quite possibly the best of all-time. He is averaging nearly 30 points per game in the playoffs and shooting about 44% from three-point range. Curry, more so than any other player in the league right now (including LeBron), has the capability to single-handedly turn a game on its head. He can heat up from behind the arc in the blink of an eye, and once he gets going, there is no stopping him. He makes open jumpers seem like layups and can make contested shots that few other players in the league should even be attempting. Curry is impossible to stop. The Cavaliers can only hope to contain him and limit the damage.
How the Cavaliers win:
Image courtesy of NBA.com
Believe it or not, the Cavaliers actually attempted more three pointers than the Warriors did in the regular season. With LeBron’s ability to penetrate into the lane and draw double teams, the Cavaliers need to space the floor with plenty of shooters. That’s where role players like Smith, Shumpert, Matthew Dellavedova, and James Jones come into play. Smith has always been a streaky shooter, but ever since coming to Cleveland, he has been playing with a lot more confidence. At times against the Hawks, he was simply un-guardable from beyond the arc. If the Cavs’ shooters can knock down open shots, the Warriors’ defense will have to stay honest on the perimeter and will not be able to bring help defense on LeBron.
Another key for the Cavaliers in this series is offensive rebounding. Second chance points are always a priority, especially in postseason games that often come right down to the wire. The Cavs have two players capable of gobbling up offensive boards in Timofey Mozgov and Tristan Thompson. Combined, those two have averaged about six offensive rebounds per game during the playoffs, leading to crucial second chance opportunities for LeBron and Co. The Warriors like to play with a small lineup to allow for plenty of fast break opportunities, which should allow the Cavs to dominate on the glass.
Most importantly, the Cavaliers need a healthy Kyrie Irving. Irving has battled with tendonitis in his left knee, limiting his ability to play at a superstar level throughout these playoffs. Sure, Cleveland has its King back home to lead the way, but as was the case in the 2007 Finals, a King is nothing without a trusty sidekick. Irving is that guy. He is fully capable of making plays for himself and for others, and his scoring ability can take over a game and ensure that LeBron doesn’t have to do it all on his own. The Cavaliers have survived the season-ending injury to Kevin Love (in fact, they are playing better as a result), but they cannot win without Irving playing at a superstar level.
The pick: Warriors in 6
